Weekly Spotlight: A Threat to Civilization — and Democracy

WAR POWERS

His threat, our promise

The United States and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire late Tuesday night — an agreement that, within a day, showed signs of tension and tenuousness. The eleventh-hour deal was struck mere hours before a deadline set by President Donald Trump, who threatened that a “whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again” if a deal wasn’t reached.

This war is already illegal. But these words are irredeemable — and potentially a canary in the coal mine for illegal orders to come. Our service members swear oaths to uphold the Constitution and obey lawful orders. A president cannot force them to execute a premeditated and unlawful attack on innocent civilians and non-military targets, and even the act of threatening to do so undermines their valor and undercuts their mission.

We strongly condemn the president’s threats and just as strongly urge Congress to step in to protect service members from facing immense pressure to carry out illegal orders and break their military oaths. Thus far, Congress’s inaction has offered tacit approval for this illegal war. If Congress members continue to shirk their responsibility to the Constitution and the service members who defend it, our promise is to hold them accountable.

• WHERE WE STAND: “President Trump seems willing to demand our troops break their oaths and carry out war crimes against innocent civilians,” said Virginia Burger, POGO’s senior defense policy analyst. “This isn’t just wrong; it’s illegal.” Read her full statement.
• MILITARY OATHS AND UNLAWFUL ORDERS: Burger, a Marine veteran, explains the promises service members make when they swear an oath to the Constitution — and their fundamental right and responsibility to refuse illegal orders.
• UNDERSTANDING WAR POWERS: David Janovsky, acting director of The Constitution Project at POGO, joined The Great Battlefield podcast to discuss war powers and constitutional crises we are working against.

SURVEILLANCE STATE

A FISA-larm fire

Congress returns from an ill-timed recess next week and immediately faces an April 20 deadline to reauthorize Section 702 of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA). The acronym might sound wonky, but your privacy is at stake. The law allows for warrantless surveillance, supposedly to only target “non-U.S. persons.” But as we and other oversight groups have said for years, our data is inevitably being swept up and collected under Section 702, with next to no transparency or accountability from the government agencies collecting it.

Making matters worse: the data broker loophole. Third-party brokers are selling your personal data — who you are, where you’ve been, what websites you’ve visited, who you’ve messaged privately — and government agencies are sidestepping your Fourth Amendment rights by buying it.

We won’t stand idly by while Americans’ private information is bought, sold, and surveilled without a warrant. That’s where you come in. Join us in demanding that Congress step in to close the data broker loophole before it’s too late.

• TELL CONGRESS: CLOSE THE DATA BROKER LOOPHOLE
• POGO INVESTIGATES: A declassified report obtained by POGO Investigates revealed that the National Security Agency (NSA) continued to conduct warrantless searches of Americans’ electronic data years after Edward Snowden’s disclosures of widespread domestic surveillance.
• FACT CHECKED: Some members of Congress, like Representative Jim Himes (D-CT), are trying to gather support for a clean reauthorization of Section 702 by claiming that Americans’ data is not being bought “through that authority.” But that misses the point. As a spokesperson for Senator Ron Wyden (D-OR) said, “Here are the facts: multiple intelligence and law enforcement agencies, including the FBI, Defense Intelligence Agency, NSA, ICE, CBP, DEA, IRS, and Secret Service have all purchased or are still purchasing Americans’ data without a warrant or any court oversight whatsoever. … People who claim this isn’t happening are misinformed.”

CONFLICTS OF INTEREST

Prediction Market Clash

Prediction market sites like Polymarket and Kalshi have made a huge splash in recent months, quickly becoming multi-billion-dollar businesses. Now, as some states seek to regulate prediction markets as a form of gambling, financial regulation experts are saying the Trump administration is “trying to put a thumb on the scale,” suing three such states and arguing that only the federal government should have jurisdiction over prediction markets.

Regardless of the merits of these lawsuits, Congress should be paying attention. The Trump administration’s intervention — and the Trump family’s close ties — to the industry adds fuel to an already simmering fire surrounding prediction markets and the potential for conflicts of interest in politics. Seven lawmakers called for more oversight of prediction markets following multiple big-money trades surrounding the war in Iran and military action in Venezuela.

The timing of many trades seems to reek of insider (and likely classified) information and insider trading, even prompting Justice Department investigations. As we have said, this is a legal gray area with real consequences, opening the door for corruption by people in power. It’s inexcusable that your tax dollars may be funding government actions that your leaders are using to make money. Your representatives should act now to prevent it.

• WHAT CAN CONGRESS DO? POGO’s Janice Luong provides seven ways Congress can address the risks of corruption and insider trading by political figures profiting from prediction markets.